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The Tea Party People

There have been several efforts made in recent weeks to figure out who exactly makes up the tea party constituency.  With all the studies and polls and demographic research happening, you’d think we stumbled across a rare species of two headed turtles or the mysterious and never-before-photographed pipsquack bird.

Previous polls have been conducted traditionally with phone banks and surveys.  However, the tea party is primarily organized online and it makes sense to measure activity online.  If for nothing else to sample the data in a new way.  And not with some easily manipulated online poll, either.

PBS has conducted an exhaustive online search of tea party directories, Facebook pages, and other social networks to measure the location of most tea party members.  The results are not scientific, but they are pretty interesting.

First, here is the map drawn from the total number of active tea party participants in the country, broken out by county.  Areas shaded in green are those with the higher concentrations of tea party members.

Next up is a sampling of tea party participants per 10,000 residents in any given county.  For every 10,000 people in Erie County, 2 people are actively involved in the tea party.  Careful, one might be right behind you!

The darkest areas indicate the “highest” level of participation with 10 in 10,000 residents being registered or active online.  If this is a movement, I think Dale Volker has had larger ones during his morning grumpy.

What is pretty clear from this sampling is that the primary centers of the tea party are in boom town counties which suffered the greatest hits during the housing crash and recession.  The other data point of note is that the areas with the highest concentration of tea party membership appear to be very solid republican counties in red states.  I know, I’m shocked as well.

Aside from all of this ongoing research and demography, there is pretty clear evidence that the tea party movement isn’t anything especially new.  It is a loose confederation of right wing citizens.  Traditional “Ron Paul” libertarians (who have been singing this song for years on the margins of American politics) make up the original core of the movement.

However, after Sarah Palin scared most of the fearful neo-cons that the Islamofascistsocialist black man was coming to take their guns and liberty, those traditional libertarians now have company.  The neo-conservative, Christian base has decided to bully their way into the Thomas Jefferson tent at oppressedwhitemanteapartypalooza.

Tea Party supporters are likely to be older, white and male. Forty percent are age 55 and over, compared with 32 percent of all poll respondents; just 22 percent are under the age of 35, 79 percent are white, and 61 percent are men. Many are also Christian fundamentalists, with 44 percent identifying themselves as “born-again,” compared with 33 percent of all respondents.

Shorter version of the above story, McCain voters make up the majority of tea party participants.  The same people who cheered on Sarah Palin at rallies in 2008, watched Sean Hannity’s nightly expose on Jermeiah Wright, and told John McCain that Obama was a muslim, etc. are all loyal members of this new “movement”.  It’s not a movement.  It’s the same old Republican base with new and improved packaging, tri-cornered hats and a crippling lack of irony.

What makes it a political force is that they have one of the world’s largest media companies promoting their agenda on America’s top cable news network, in The Wall Street Journal, in The New York Post and on the top syndicated radio programs and widely read websites like Drudge, Breitbart, Fox properties, etc..  Because they have control of such a significant stake of U.S. media, they are driving the conversation on other networks and outlets.  Fomenting the anger and fear as far and wide as possible that the black man and his merry band of half-assed socialists are coming for your freedom.

Now that anger over the healthcare reform bill is dying down, the economy is slowly improving and infighting amongst the loose libertarian/Ne0-Con tea party groups is beginning, will they be a force in November?  Can their media machine sustain the roar of last summer and this spring?

I suspect they will be…a force for Republicans to deal with in the primaries.  They’ll slice off votes from moderate Republicans, challenge long time incumbents and generally pull the larger party to the right.  See, Paladino, Carl.

When the tea party fringe is introduced to the rest of society and a wider demographic base of voters that is gradually shifting younger, more diverse and better educated…their platform will go over like Paladino’s horse porn in church.

If Democrats can play to the central themes and appeal to centrists and moderates, I suspect Officer Barbrady might have the best advice on how to deal with the tea party “movement”.

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

While Republican lawmakers are united in their opposition to the Senate’s financial-reform bill, the Tea Partiers—still fighting to repeal health care—don’t seem to care. Benjamin Sarlin on whether the movement can get energized.

Republicans and Democrats alike have been gearing up for battle on financial reform, with GOP senators united in their opposition and Democrats all but daring them to filibuster. But if it comes to a fight, will the Republicans have any backup outside Capitol Hill?

Tax Day rallies last week in Washington, D.C., were devoid of signs, slogans, and speeches on the finance bill, and influential right-leaning websites like Red State and Hot Air have all but ignored the issue this week, despite major movement on the Democrats’ legislation. There are some exceptions—Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) took at least a little heat from activists for playing ball with Democrats on the legislation last month—but by and large there’s been no high-profile campaign to defeat the bill, and a number of conservative activists concede that the grassroots are inactive.

“It’s almost like the whole grassroots movement can’t get loose of [health care]. Because of the repeal issue, the battle isn’t over. The Tea Party movement is not moving on.”

Dick Armey, president of Tea Party organizer FreedomWorks, acknowledged in an interview that his group has yet to make its mark on the debate.

“We haven’t had a chance to study it,” Armey said. “We have a general skepticism that wouldn’t know how to regulate the financial industry.”

Karen Hoffman, founder of the conservative group DC Works for US, attributed the lack of interest primarily to the Tea Partiers’ continued involvement in health care. For Congress, the debate over the Affordable Care Act ended with its passage, but the Tea Party movement is still organizing long-shot campaigns to repeal the law, challenge it in court, and undermine its provisions on a state level.

“It’s almost like the whole grassroots movement can’t get loose of it,” Hoffman said. “Because of the repeal issue, the battle isn’t over. The Tea Party movement is not moving on.”

Phillip Dennis, founder of the Dallas Tea Party and state coordinator for the Tea Party Patriots, said he was largely unaware of the finance legislation, but expected it to stir a reaction eventually.

“I think it will become more on the radar as it becomes closer to a vote,” he said. “I don’t think a lot of people understand it yet and the details are just starting to come out.”

• Kinky Friedman: Why Dems Should Blame Themselves for the Tea Party

• Obama’s 7 Broken Promises It may be too late for the Tea Party movement to organize, even if it can be persuaded to take the Republicans’ side. A bill could come to the Senate floor as early as Wednesday, and the administration is aiming to fast-track the legislation. Progressive groups are starting to become active on the issue: The AFL-CIO is planning a major protest on Wall Street on April 29, while the Democratic National Committee’s grassroots arm, Organizing for America, is calling on its members to lend their support to the bill. Reform supporters have also received an unexpected spate of encouraging news in recent days, particularly the Securities and Exchange Commission’s complaint against Goldman Sachs, a development that could lend momentum to their efforts.

“I think that [Goldman Sachs] is a game-changer in that it reinforces the need for comprehensive financial regulatory reform,” said Brandon Rees, deputy director of the AFL-CIO’s office of investment.

Heather Booth, executive director of Americans for Financial Reform, told The Daily Beast that the Goldman case “certainly underscores the need for real regulation to rein in the banks and rein in this type of risky behavior.”

While a number of experts on the left have criticized the proposed financial legislation, saying it does not go far enough, the pro-reform camp has been buoyed by an unexpectedly strong bill on the Senate side, a surprise to observers who expected its provisions would be weaker than the already-passed House bill. Booth called Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s (D-AR) recent decision to crack down on the derivatives market with tougher restrictions “stunning,” given the widespread expectations that she would water down regulation in committee.